Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."