🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

However this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and recent underperformers improving in unison. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still